McComeback.
John McCain is old, and no matter how much he tries, he can't hide it. His signature "straight-talk" is often punctuated with faltering pauses and misspoken words. He seems to blink too much, uses stiff-looking hand gestures, and has a nasty habit of repeating himself. When you add it all together, you get a man who isn't exactly the most dynamic politician this side of Howard Dean.
And no one can deny that McCain is a polarizing figure in Republican politics. He co-authored a campaign finance reform bill that activists from both sides of the political spectrum view as a threat to the first amendment. He supported a doomed immigration reform bill that became synonymous with amnesty on conservative talk shows across the country. He supports embryonic stem-cell research, and has called fundamentalist preachers like Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson "agents of intolerance", gestures that have alienated many Evangelical Christians. Given this track record, it's obvious that while journalists and independents often swoon for McCain, he certainly doesn't invite a whole lot of conservative Republican lovin'.
It's no wonder that just a few months ago, McCain's campaign was losing money and staff members like a sinking ship, and dozens of commentators -- including myself -- lined up to proclaim his candidacy officially dead.
Then the New Hampshire primary came along, and McCain emerged victorious. This wasn't entirely surprising, since he won the state by a handy margin eight years ago, and still has a devoted independent following in the state. But nevertheless, the win jolted his campaign back to life.
Four days ago in South Carolina, McCain added another notch to his rusty sword. Unlike his previous victory, McCain's South Carolina success wasn't what media-types would call inevitable. In 2000, South Carolina's powerful evangelical voting bloc derailed McCain's seemingly-unstoppable momentum, setting events in motion that would lead to the nomination of George W. Bush later that year. This time around, it seems that the fickle voters of South Carolina decided to propel McCain to front-runner status. McCain now has the lead in multiple national polls; narrow leads to be sure, but leads nonetheless.
But why McCain? Don't most Republicans hate the guy?
Yes, a lot of them do. But in a field full of candidates with murky pasts and offensive positions, McCain may be seen as the lesser of five evils.
Think of McCain as the anti-Romney. Mitt Romney looks presidential, occasionally sounds presidential, tows the party line perfectly on everything from gun control to immigration, and unlike twice-married McCain, Mitt Romney has a squeaky-clean family that looks like it could have popped right out of Norman Rockwell's imagination. In short, he should be the ideal Republican candidate. Except for one little thing: a couple years ago, he was a completely different man. He was pro-abortion, pro-gay boy scout leaders, and pro a bunch of other things that conservatives tend to despise. His better-homes-and-gardens wife? A planned parenthood donor. His perfection is an awkward plastic mask that thousands can see right through.
McCain, on the other hand, is unapologetically unorthodox. On the campaign trail, he can be found speaking about global warming and what the government can do to halt it. He still refuses to back down from his stance on illegal immigration in the face of constant attacks from his opponents in general, and Mitt Romney in particular. Waiting for McCain to renounce his support for the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act? Keep waiting. One thing's for certain: John McCain's a fighter, and he isn't choosy when it comes to who he picks his fights with. And maybe -- just maybe -- people prefer a fighter with real flaws to a perfect phony.
In politics, sincerity, real or perceived, goes a long way. At the end of the day, every voter will have some beef with every candidate on certain issues. This is definitely the case in the current Republican primary race, where the key players are a thrice-married liberal mayor, an ex-liberal Mormon, a socially-conservative, but economically liberal baptist preacher, and an iconoclastic Senator. When you don't agree with anyone on everything, trust becomes the key factor. A lot of Republicans may have problems with some of the things McCain stands for, but they may appreciate the simple fact that he appears to actually stand for something.
As a bonus, John McCain's independent streak helps him rake in more independent votes than any other Republican candidate. Where conservatives see flawed positions, moderates see positions that look a lot like the one's they'd take. And for McCain, the apparently stabilizing situation in Iraq is helping turn his unflinching support for the "surge" from a liability to an asset among rank-and-file Americans. Electability has always been a major concern when it comes to picking a man (or woman) to run for president, so if McCain maintains his stellar record of winning independent votes, you can bet that more than a few GOP politicos will be giving McCain a second look.
The race is still fluid. In the past few months, dead candidates have come to life, and former front-runners have been left in the dust. Between now and the Republican convention in September, just about anything could happen. But with the February 5th "Super Tuesday" primaries edging closer, the window of opportunity for a candidate to emerge as a clear front-runner is rapidly closing. If McCain can win Florida next Tuesday -- a formidable task, he just might get the momentum he needs to clinch the nomination. If not, who knows?
As a side note, I'd like to remind everyone that Rudy Giuliani is still running. Remember him? The bald guy with the lisp? After abandoning his original strategy of "winning through victory", his campaign has decided to shift tactics to the ever-so-stealthy "winning through total defeat". So far, everything seems to be going according to plan.
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