Just Remember: No Matter Who Wins In the End, Huckabee Will Still Be A Funny Word.

Like the highly convoluted plot of Pirates of the Caribbean 3, the Iowa caucus is something that makes less sense the more you think about it. Why are candidates from both parties forced to spend months pandering to the citizens of a rural state that only enters into the national consciousness every four years? From an objective viewpoint, this seems like an incredibly flawed arrangement: Iowa certainly isn't a cross-section of the American people as a whole, and the disproportionate influence wielded by farmers in the area ensures that candidates from both parties commit to the maintenance and expansion of farm subsidies that were created to pull the country out of the great depression. But for all these flaws, there remains a simple, logical reason for the prominence of the Iowa caucuses in the presidential election process: dude, it's the Iowa caucus.

Sure, It may be unfair that a handful of politically active people in Iowa get to shape the course of presidential elections, while the residents of neighboring states like Nebraska languish in the darkness of their ridiculously late primaries, but that's just the way things are. The political powers-that-be know better than to mess with a system that's been zealously defended by stubborn Iowans for over three decades; rumor has it that the last RNC chairman to challenge Iowa's first-in-the-nation status was found floating face-down in the missouri river, his lifeless body riddled with mysteriously corn-cob-like markings. So, in the spirit of the election season, it's time to turn off your brain, and turn on the speculation about the winners of this dubious contest.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee proved that the so-called Hucka-boom isn't about to fizzle out just yet. Even after sustaining heavy fire from Romney's well-funded attack machine, and apparently turning the other cheek, the Huckster managed to clobber his opponent with a nine-point victory. But despite this hard-earned success, many doubt that Huckabee's considerable powers of persuasion will carry him all the way to the Republican nomination, let alone the white-house. The logical side of my brain agrees with that assessment; but then again, the logical side of my brain once proclaimed that Huckabee would inevitably fade away as soon as Fred Thompson entered the race, a prediction that has been proven dead wrong in recent months. Even though poll-obsessed political junkies like myself wish that presidential races could be predicted using simple equations, politics is ultimately about people. And if there's anything you can be sure about in the topsy-turvy world of presidential politics, it's this: a lot of people like Mike.

But not everyone likes Mike. Influential conservative voices as varied as The National Review, The Club For Growth, and the all-knowing Maha Rushi have accused Huckabee of being a pseudo-conservative when it comes to little things like taxes, spending, and the need to shrink government; issues that have been the bedrock of the conservative movement since the days of Barry Goldwater. Unfortunately, the facts appear to back up these accusations. While Huckabee's commitment to key social issues like abortion and gay marriage is unquestionable, his record as governor of Arkansas seems to display a lack of commitment to the vital conservative principle of little government. There's nothing wrong with having a big heart, but sadly, people with big hearts tend to advocate a similarly sized government. Governor Huckabee was no exception.

The modern Republican party has always been a sometimes-awkward amalgamation of social and fiscal conservatives, but if Mike Huckabee manages to capitalize on his victory in Iowa and march all the way to the nomination, the unity of the Republican party could be at stake. For the past eight years, libertarian leaning Republicans have had to put up with a Republican president who preaches consistent conservatism but refuses to restrain federal growth in any meaningful way. Judging by his record, Huckabee would bring more of the same. But even at his most "compassionate", Bush's rhetoric has never approached the almost anti-business tone of Huckabee's heartland populism. To many old-guard conservatives, a Huckabee nomination could be perceived as the final insult from a party that's taken them for granted for far too long. Is a schism inevitable if Huckabee gets nominated? Maybe not. Is it possible? Definitely. If both major party candidates lean towards further government expansion, there just might be an opening for a third-party conservative candidate to enter the race and siphon votes away from the Republican nominee. The third party candidate wouldn't win -- or even come close -- but he might damage the Republicans enough to force the party to shift a little more to the right.

Nonetheless, the strength of Huckabee's natural charisma should not be underestimated. He may look a lot like Bush on certain issues, but he's also one of the smoothest-talking politicians in recent history, a label you probably won't find in a single account of Bush's political career. The man can talk -- and better yet, he can appear sincere at will. If anyone can verbally soothe disgruntled party-members into an obedient stupor, Mike Huckabee can.

Or can he? A painstaking New York Times account of his term as governor came to a different conclusion:

He is also remembered in the state for a style of governing that tended to freeze out anyone of any party who disagreed with his plans. He did not, for example, seek Mr. Clinton’s conciliatory middle, or try to court skeptical state lawmakers. Though he was considered as persuasive a speechmaker as he had been a pastor, Mr. Huckabee largely kept his own counsel — in politics, ethics and a singular clemency policy that continues to haunt him.

“Huckabee didn’t build bridges,” said State Senator Jim Argue Jr., a Democrat and leader in the schools overhaul effort. “If you didn’t agree with him, he attacked you.” Jake Files, a former Republican state representative, recalled that the governor would call lawmakers into his office and state his plans. “Kind of like getting called to the principal’s office,” Mr. Files said. “If you don’t line up with him, Katie bar the door.”

Still, Huckabee doesn't have the nomination clinched just yet. In New Hampshire, a state with far fewer evangelical voters, McCain is widely regarded as a major threat to Huckabee's momentum. And all this speculation about the early primary and caucus results ignores the heavyweight lurking in the corner: Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani never planned to win Iowa and New Hampshire. Ultimately, the man who gets the nomination will be the man who has the most delegates at the convention-- and coincidentally, Iowa and New Hampshire don't have a whole lot of those. Giuliani knows this, and is choosing to focus his strategy on the delegate-rich states of California, Florida, and New York. Those are the races that really matter on the road to Minneapolis, and they could easily upset what the media is currently painting as a Romney vs. Huckabee race. As always, it ain't over til' it's over.

As for the Democrats, I think I'll wait and see what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday before I do a write up of Obama. Mainly because I'm lazy -- not quite as lazy as the Thompson campaign, but still.